Publication Date
2025
Subject Area
Section 5: American South
Abstract
Many southern states, excluding Texas and Florida, have reported significantly lower annual GDP than other American subregions since the Civil War and Reconstruction. Furthermore, some recent articles show a correlation between southern states with higher levels of poverty and those who fought on the side of the Confederacy. Several sources make a logical argument that the South is still in the process of equilibrating to the economic norm, and the continuation of certain economic principles has prolonged that process further. To examine a possible relationship between state wealth and the history of the Confederacy in the southern states, I test data from seven independent variables as potential factors on one dependent variable, which is state GDP. I focus on the unique history of the South and theorize that states that seceded from the Union and joined the Confederacy during the Civil War have lower annual GDPs due to the economic pangs of war and reconstruction in those areas. The findings show that three independent variables - population, educational attainment, and household income - are statistically significant and two variables - educational attainment and workforce in natural resources - are substantively significant relative to state GDP. Membership in the Confederacy is not as significant as theorized but has some effect on state GDP and the statistical model overall. An explanation for the results is offered as population and education appear to be some of the biggest influences on the variation in state GDP.
